COVID

DIGITAL CONTACt tracing FOR SARS-cov-2

In March 2020, we proposed to slow the spread of COVID-19 by using a contact-tracing app on mobile phones. Since then, we have published a number of studies on how to design and evaluate succesful contact tracing apps. This website provides links and summaries for our work.

Epi impact

Fig. 1: Geographical variability of app uptake and cases of COVID-19 between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2021
a, c: Map (a) and histogram (c) of app uptake by LTLA. Colours in a indicate app uptake as shown in c. b: Cumulative cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population over analysis phases 1 and 2.
d: Seven-day rolling mean of daily cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants. Each line represents an LTLA, coloured by app uptake as shown in c.

Publications and BLOGS SARS-cov-2 DIGITAL CONTACT TRACING

In Kendall & Ferretti et al, Science 2024 we use data generated by the app to show how digital contact tracing technologies can help control epidemics by enabling rapid analysis at scale and with unprecendented resolution. See also the corresponding blog post.
In Ferretti & Wymant et al, Nature 2023 we use data generated by the app to study how likely it is to catch COVID-19 after being exposed to someone who is infected.
In Kendall et al, Nature Communications 2023 we estimated how the epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 App varied over its first year in operation, concluding that it prevented over a million infections. See also the correspondong blog post.
In Abueg & Hinch et al, npj Digital Medicine 2021, working with Google Research, we modelled how much digital contact tracing and manual contact tracing combined could reduce infections and deaths in three counties in Washington State.
In Ferretti et al, medrXiv 2021, we investigated the costs and benefits of two strategies for reducing transmission from individuals identified by contact tracing. See also the corresponding blog post No 15.
In Wymant & Ferretti et al, Nature 2021 we estimated the epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 App on the epidemic in England and Wales, concluding that it prevented several hundred thousand cases and saved several thousand lives in its first three months. See the corresponding blog post No 12 for further explanation, and this seminar by co-lead analyst Chris Wymant. The UK Department of Health and Social Care announced our results in a press release. Francis Collins, then director of the US National Institute of Health, discussed our results here. Coverage in the popular press: BBC, Forbes, and 50+ other news outlets.
In Hinch & Probert et al, PLoS Computational Biology 2021 we presented OpenABM-Covid19: an open-source individual-based model developed specifically to model the COVID-19 epidemic and different non-pharmaceutical interventions including digital contact tracing. See also the corresponding blog post No 10.
In Colizza et al, Nature Medicine 2021 we enumerated epidemiological and public-health requirements for digital contact tracing apps and their evaluation.
In Ferretti et al, medRxiv 2020, we study how the infectious period of COVID-19 relates to the date of infection and the date of symptom onset. See also the corresponding blog post No 9.
In Kendall et al, Lancet Digital Health 2020 we analysed epidemiological changes on the Isle of Wight in May 2020 when a Test and Trace programme was introduced, including a first version of the NHS COVID-19 App. See also the corresponding blog post No 7.
In Altmann et al, JMIR Mhealth Uhealth 2020 we conducted and examined user surveys about user acceptance of digital contact tracing. Read our country-specific reports for the UK, USA, Germany, France, and Italy and see the corresponding blog post No 3.
In Parker et al, Journal of Medical Ethics 2020 we discussed the ethics of digital contact tracing in greater detail than in the original proposal. See the corresponding blog post No 2.
In Ferretti & Wymant et al, Science 2020 we provided the initial proposal for digital contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2 based on evidence from mathematical modelling. The start of this seminar by co-lead analyst Chris Wymant provides some further explanation of this study. Coverage in the popular press: BBC, The Guardian, The Washington Post, New York Times, Fox News, Wired, Al Jazeera, El País, Der Spiegel, and 300+ other news outlets. See also the corresponding blog post No 1.

sars-Cov-2 Genomics and Evolution

In Lythgoe & Hall et al, Science 2021 we analysed SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and what this means for the transmission of minority variants.
In both Hinch et al, PTRSA 2022 and Panovska-Griffiths et al, PTRSA 2022 we used statistical modelling to estimate the relative fitness of viral variants, and mathematical modelling to explore what the public health impact of alternative scenarios would have been.