Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
Senior Research Fellow; Lecturer
I am a Senior Research Fellow in Modelling Infectious Diseases for Policy at The Pandemic Sciences Institute and a Lecturer in Probability and Statistics at The Queen's College within the University of Oxford.
I lead a modelling group that utilises mathematical and statistical modelling to respond to current and emerging questions in infectious disease epidemiology and public health. Pre COVID-19, my research was focused on evaluating different intervention strategies for infectious diseases, including seasonal and pandemic influenza, RSV and HIV.
Over the COVID-19 pandemic, I led the ensemble modelling that was responsible for the generation of the short-term reproduction number R and growth rate r nowcasts and the medium-term projections (MTPs) of the COVID-19 trajectories, as a collaboration between the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group for Modelling Operational (SPI-M-O) and the UK Health Security Agency. Additionally, I modelled the transmission of different SARS-CoV-2 variants using agent-based models (ABMs), advising policy decision bodies in the UK at different decision junctures over the pandemic. Notably, my modelling results on when and how to reopen schools after the national lockdowns, and my roadmap modelling projections in 2021 were used by the SPI-M-O, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), NHS and UKHSA.
Currently, my research is focused around utilising ABMs across different diseases and developing complementary approaches to model infectious disease transmission and control. This involves exploring different methods such as machine-learning algorithms, to improve calibration of ABMs, and developing modular frameworks to make them more user friendly. I continue to work closely with researchers within the UK Health Security Agency to answer emerging public health questions. These include modelling Mpox and Avian influenza transmission and evaluating different immunisation strategies to reduce pneumococcal disease burden.
I am also a Fellow of The Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, of The Royal Statistical Society and of The Royal Society for Public Health. I take a keen interest in promoting mathematics and statistics, regularly giving talks at schools across the UK.
Recent publications
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Responsive modelling of the mpox epidemic in England as a cross-government and academia collaboration: the process, challenges, and lessons learned.
Journal article
Panovska-Griffiths J. et al, (2023), The Lancet. Microbe
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Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics.
Journal article
Kretzschmar ME. et al, (2022), Epidemics, 38
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Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling.
Journal article
Swallow B. et al, (2022), Epidemics, 38
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Modelling the impact of reopening schools in the UK in early 2021 in the presence of the alpha variant and with roll-out of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2.
Journal article
Panovska-Griffiths J. et al, (2022), Journal of mathematical analysis and applications
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Schools should still be the last to close and first to open if there were any future lockdown.
Journal article
Viner R. et al, (2022), BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 376