Disease Modelling Group

The Disease Modelling Group aim is to create dynamic mathematical modelling solutions to inform and support key global and local health policy decisions - in relation to infectious diseases across the world, with the overall goal of improving human health.

The Disease Modelling Group is led by Professor Déirdre Hollingsworth, an international leader in the development of statistical, mathematical, and computational models that inform on the dynamics of disease as well as the translation of outputs to support stakeholder decisions for both national and global health policy.

Professor Hollingsworth and the team frequently engage in UK-based projects, including their participation in SPI-M-O, a component of the UK government’s COVID-19 science advisory framework. Additionally, the collaborative modelling group takes the lead in diverse projects, including contributions to COVID-19 initiatives, and the JUNIPER partnership, vaccine impact assessments, working with AMMnet a global community of malaria modellers and the neglected tropical diseases modelling consortium.

The group collaborates with international organisations, including the Global Neglected Tropical Diseases Programme at the World Health Organization (WHO), Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI), The END Fund, Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) and with global health experts to develop strategies for combating infectious diseases.

Recent collaborations with WHO include a report entitled, 'Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on seven neglected tropical diseases: a model-based analysis’ which developed scenarios to assess programme disruptions and formulate remedial strategies; a scoping review on the impact of climate change and co-organising a meeting identifying key NTD modelling questions to achieve the global goals across 20 diseases.

The NTD modelling consortium

The Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium is an international network of infectious disease modellers in Europe, the USA and Africa funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and the Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF). They work to provide policy-relevant analyses to inform the design of more effective control strategies for neglected tropical diseases, which are infections that perpetuate the cycle of poverty in low-income populations.

The OxLiv Consortium

With partners at the University of Liverpool and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and international collaborators, the group are providing models to assess the impact of putative future vaccines for Lassa Fever and Chikungunya, funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation (CEPI).

Former members of the group have embarked on diverse paths, securing independent academic positions and prestigious fellowships both within the UK and abroad. Leveraging their expertise in delivering policy-relevant research, they have established their own research groups, furthering their impact on

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