Prediction of febrile seizures in siblings: a practical approach.
van Esch A., Steyerberg EW., van Duijn CM., Offringa M., Derksen-Lubsen G., van Steensel-Moll HA.
UNLABELLED:To quantify the risk of febrile seizures (FS) in relatives of children with FS and to predict the risk of FS in siblings, we calculated cumulative risks of FS in first degree relatives of 129 children with FS. The study was conducted as a prospective follow up study of FS recurrences at the outpatient clinic of the Sophia Children's Hospital in Rotterdam. Thirteen parents and 12 siblings had experienced FS, accounting for a 6-year cumulative risk of 7%. The risk of FS was increased in relatives of children with recurrent FS (12%). The risk of FS in siblings (10%) in our study was more than twice the average risk in a similar population (4%). A positive FS history in a parent, young age at onset in the proband, and recurrences in the proband were selected in a multivariable prediction model. If two or more of these risk factors were present, the risk of West European siblings to develop FS was 46% (hazard ratio 5.4). CONCLUSION:The cumulative risk of FS in siblings of children with FS is increased. The age attained risk of FS can be estimated using a practical model incorporating three readily available risk factors.