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Epidemiological analysis and mathematical models are now essential tools in understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases and in designing public health strategies to contain them. They have provided fundamental concepts, such as the basic and effective reproduction number, generation times, epidemic growth rates, and the role of pre-symptomatic infectiousness, which are crucial in characterising infectious diseases. These concepts are outlined and their relevance in designing control policies for outbreaks is discussed. They are illustrated using examples from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, which was brought under control within a year, and from pandemic influenza planning, where mathematical models have been used extensively.

Original publication

DOI

10.1057/jphp.2009.13

Type

Journal article

Journal

Journal of public health policy

Publication Date

09/2009

Volume

30

Pages

328 - 341

Addresses

MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Keywords

Humans, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Models, Statistical, Disease Outbreaks, United Kingdom