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Models of molecular evolution that incorporate the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphism (dN/dS ratio) as a parameter can be used to identify sites that are under diversifying selection or functional constraint in a sample of gene sequences. However, when there has been recombination in the evolutionary history of the sequences, reconstructing a single phylogenetic tree is not appropriate, and inference based on a single tree can give misleading results. In the presence of high levels of recombination, the identification of sites experiencing diversifying selection can suffer from a false-positive rate as high as 90%. We present a model that uses a population genetics approximation to the coalescent with recombination and use reversible-jump MCMC to perform Bayesian inference on both the dN/dS ratio and the recombination rate, allowing each to vary along the sequence. We demonstrate that the method has the power to detect variation in the dN/dS ratio and the recombination rate and does not suffer from a high false-positive rate. We use the method to analyze the porB gene of Neisseria meningitidis and verify the inferences using prior sensitivity analysis and model criticism techniques.

Original publication




Journal article



Publication Date





1411 - 1425


Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TG, United Kingdom.


Neisseria meningitidis, Porins, Models, Statistical, Bayes Theorem, Genetics, Population, Recombination, Genetic, Haplotypes, Polymorphism, Genetic, Models, Genetic, Computer Simulation, Selection, Genetic