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The duration over which antibody responses persist following HPV vaccination is unknown. To estimate the longevity of responses induced by HPV-16 vaccination, two models were fitted to serum anti-HPV-16 levels measured during a 48-month study period. The first was a conventional model of antibody decay and the second was a modified model that accounts for long-lived immune memory. Using the antibody decay model, it was estimated that following administration of a three-dose regimen of HPV-16 vaccine in women aged 16-23 years, anti-HPV-16 levels will remain above those induced naturally by HPV-16 infection for 12 years, and above detectable levels for 32 years in 50% of vaccinees. With the modified model, which fitted the data better (p<0.001), it was estimated that near life-long persistence of anti-HPV-16 following vaccination is expected at titer levels above those associated with reduction of natural HPV-16 infection in 76% of these subjects, and above detectable levels in 99% of these subjects.

Original publication




Journal article



Publication Date





4324 - 4333


Imperial College London, London, UK.


Humans, Papillomavirus Infections, Vaccines, Virosome, Antibodies, Viral, Follow-Up Studies, Models, Immunological, Time Factors, Adolescent, Adult, Uterine Cervical Neoplasms, Female, Human papillomavirus 16, Papillomavirus Vaccines