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BackgroundIt is important that population cohorts at increased risk of hospitalisation and death following a COVID-19 infection are identified and protected.ObjectivesWe identified risk factors associated with increased risk of hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality in inner North East London (NEL) during the first UK COVID-19 wave.MethodsMultivariate logistic regression analysis on linked primary and secondary care data from people aged 16 or older with confirmed COVID-19 infection between 01/02/2020 and 30/06/2020 determined odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and P-values for the association between demographic, deprivation and clinical factors with COVID-19 hospitalisation, ICU admission and mortality.ResultsOver the study period, 1781 people were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 1195 (67%) were hospitalised, 152 (9%) admitted to ICU and 400 (23%) died. Results confirm previously identified risk factors: being male, or of Black or Asian ethnicity, or aged over 50. Obesity, type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) increased the risk of hospitalisation. Obesity increased the risk of being admitted to ICU. Underlying CKD, stroke and dementia increased the risk of death. Having learning disabilities was strongly associated with increased risk of death (OR = 4.75, 95% CI = [1.91, 11.84], P = .001). Having three or four co-morbidities increased the risk of hospitalisation (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = [1.55, 3.54], P ConclusionsWe confirm that age, sex, ethnicity, obesity, CKD and diabetes are important determinants of risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death. For the first time, we also identify people with learning disabilities and multi-morbidity as additional patient cohorts that need to be actively protected during COVID-19 waves.

Original publication




Journal article


Influenza and other respiratory viruses

Publication Date





577 - 588


Financial Strategy Team, NHS North East London Commissioning Alliance, London, UK.


Humans, Dementia, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Obesity, Critical Care, Hospitalization, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Middle Aged, Female, Male, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Stroke, Young Adult, Secondary Care, COVID-19