What can modelling tell us about sustainable end points for neglected tropical disease?
Minter A., Pellis L., Medley GF., Hollingsworth TD.
As programs move closer towards the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims - for example minimising morbidity and minimising costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move towards 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.