Professor Christl Donnelly
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Colleges
Christl Donnelly
CBE FMedSci FRS
Professor of Applied Statistics
My research programme brings together and develops statistical and biomathematical methods to analyse epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. I have studied a variety of diseases, with a particular interest in outbreaks. I also have interests in ecology, conservation and animal welfare.
I use rigorous parameter estimation and hypothesis testing to gain the robust insights from dynamical models of disease transmission, demography and interventions. My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure. The ultimate goal is to make control strategies as effective as they can be.
I have studied many infectious diseases, including Zika virus, Ebola, MERS, influenza, SARS, bovine TB, foot-and-mouth disease, rabies, cholera, dengue, BSE/vCJD, malaria and HIV/AIDS. I was a leading member of the WHO Ebola Response Team (2014-2016). I was also deputy chair of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB (1998-2007) which designed, oversaw and analysed the Randomised Badger Culling Trial.
I studied mathematics as an undergraduate at Oberlin College and biostatistics as a graduate student at Harvard School of Public Health.
Recent publications
Estimating the Potential Burden of Clinically Significant Hantavirus Cases in Argentina.
Journal article
Kim Y. and Donnelly CA., (2026), The Lancet regional health. Europe, 66
A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling.
Journal article
Steyn N. et al, (2026), American journal of epidemiology
A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling
Journal article
Steyn N. et al, (2026), American Journal of Epidemiology
Evaluating the impact of antiviral post-exposure prophylaxis for health-care workers during ebolavirus outbreaks: a modelling study
Preprint
Stapley JN. et al, (2026)
Integrated surveillance resolves Darién paradox of Oropouche virus emergence in Panama's migration corridor.
Preprint
Rodríguez X. et al, (2026)