Professor Christl Donnelly
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Colleges
Christl Donnelly
CBE FMedSci FRS
Professor of Applied Statistics
My research programme brings together and develops statistical and biomathematical methods to analyse epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. I have studied a variety of diseases, with a particular interest in outbreaks. I also have interests in ecology, conservation and animal welfare.
I use rigorous parameter estimation and hypothesis testing to gain the robust insights from dynamical models of disease transmission, demography and interventions. My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure. The ultimate goal is to make control strategies as effective as they can be.
I have studied many infectious diseases, including Zika virus, Ebola, MERS, influenza, SARS, bovine TB, foot-and-mouth disease, rabies, cholera, dengue, BSE/vCJD, malaria and HIV/AIDS. I was a leading member of the WHO Ebola Response Team (2014-2016). I was also deputy chair of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB (1998-2007) which designed, oversaw and analysed the Randomised Badger Culling Trial.
I studied mathematics as an undergraduate at Oberlin College and biostatistics as a graduate student at Harvard School of Public Health.
Recent publications
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Pandemic-risk-related behaviour change in England from June 2020 to March 2022: REACT-1 study among over 2 million people
Steyn N. et al, (2025)
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Artificial intelligence for modelling infectious disease epidemics.
Kraemer MUG. et al, (2025), Nature, 638, 623 - 635
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Asymmetric limits on timely interventions from noisy epidemic data
Parag KV. et al, (2025)
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The Mathematics of Serocatalytic Models with applications to public health data
Kamau E. et al, (2025)
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Bayesian Inference of Phylogenetic Distances: Revisiting the Eigenvalue Approach.
Penn MJ. et al, (2025), Bulletin of mathematical biology, 87