Professor Christl Donnelly
Contact information
Colleges
Christl Donnelly
CBE FMedSci FRS
Professor of Applied Statistics
My research programme brings together and develops statistical and biomathematical methods to analyse epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. I have studied a variety of diseases, with a particular interest in outbreaks. I also have interests in ecology, conservation and animal welfare.
I use rigorous parameter estimation and hypothesis testing to gain the robust insights from dynamical models of disease transmission, demography and interventions. My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure. The ultimate goal is to make control strategies as effective as they can be.
I have studied many infectious diseases, including Zika virus, Ebola, MERS, influenza, SARS, bovine TB, foot-and-mouth disease, rabies, cholera, dengue, BSE/vCJD, malaria and HIV/AIDS. I was a leading member of the WHO Ebola Response Team (2014-2016). I was also deputy chair of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB (1998-2007) which designed, oversaw and analysed the Randomised Badger Culling Trial.
I studied mathematics as an undergraduate at Oberlin College and biostatistics as a graduate student at Harvard School of Public Health.
Recent publications
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Renewal equations for mosquito-borne diseases
Journal article
Mills C. et al, (2025), Methods in Ecology and Evolution
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Bayesian modelling of repeated cross-sectional epidemic prevalence survey data
Preprint
Steyn N. et al, (2025)
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Pandemic-risk-related behaviour change in England from June 2020 to March 2022: REACT-1 study among over 2 million people
Preprint
Steyn N. et al, (2025)
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Artificial intelligence for modelling infectious disease epidemics.
Journal article
Kraemer MUG. et al, (2025), Nature, 638, 623 - 635
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Asymmetric limits on timely interventions from noisy epidemic data
Preprint
Parag KV. et al, (2025)