Professor Christl Donnelly
CBE FMedSci FRS
Professor of Applied Statistics
My research programme brings together and develops statistical and biomathematical methods to analyse epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases. I have studied a variety of diseases, with a particular interest in outbreaks. I also have interests in ecology, conservation and animal welfare.
I use rigorous parameter estimation and hypothesis testing to gain the robust insights from dynamical models of disease transmission, demography and interventions. My research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and ability to predict) the effect of interventions on infectious agent transmission dynamics and population structure. The ultimate goal is to make control strategies as effective as they can be.
I have studied many infectious diseases, including Zika virus, Ebola, MERS, influenza, SARS, bovine TB, foot-and-mouth disease, rabies, cholera, dengue, BSE/vCJD, malaria and HIV/AIDS. I was a leading member of the WHO Ebola Response Team (2014-2016). I was also deputy chair of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB (1998-2007) which designed, oversaw and analysed the Randomised Badger Culling Trial.
I studied mathematics as an undergraduate at Oberlin College and biostatistics as a graduate student at Harvard School of Public Health.
Population antibody responses following COVID-19 vaccination in 212,102 individuals
Ward H. et al, (2022), Nature Communications, 13
Analysis of a double Poisson model for predicting football results in Euro 2020
DONNELLY C. and Penn M., (2022), PLoS One
Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
PARAG KV. et al, (2022), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers
PARAG K. and DONNELLY C., (2022), PLoS Computational Biology
Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study.
Unwin HJT. et al, (2022), The Lancet. Child & adolescent health