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Changes in risk behaviour among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands were estimated by fitting a mathematical model to annual HIV and AIDS diagnoses in the period 1980-2009 and, independently, from rates of unprotected anal intercourse in a prospective cohort study in Amsterdam. The agreement between the two approaches was very good, confirming that in terms of incidence, increasing risk behaviour between MSM is offsetting benefits offered by enhanced testing and treatment.

Original publication




Journal article


AIDS (London, England)

Publication Date





1840 - 1843


Humans, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Cohort Studies, Prospective Studies, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Risk-Taking, Homosexuality, Male, Unsafe Sex, Models, Theoretical, Adult, Sexual Partners, Netherlands, Male