Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

Original publication

DOI

10.1126/science.aaa4339

Type

Journal article

Journal

Science (New York, N.Y.)

Publication Date

03/2015

Volume

347

Addresses

Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. j.a.p.heesterbeek@uu.nl.

Keywords

Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration, Animals, Humans, Communicable Diseases, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Zoonoses, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Public Health, Disease Outbreaks, Communicable Disease Control, Models, Biological, Health Policy, Basic Reproduction Number, Coinfection, Global Health