Cookies on this website
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Continue' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>In view of the current global COVID-19 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis, have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used three established lymphatic filariasis transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as one year can allow catch-up on the progress lost, and if maintained throughout the programme can lead to acceleration of up to 3 years.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes; and lead to potential acceleration, should these enhanced strategies be maintained.</jats:p></jats:sec>

Original publication

DOI

10.1101/2020.11.06.20227017

Type

Journal article

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Publication Date

08/11/2020