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Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important.

Original publication

DOI

10.1093/cid/ciy005

Type

Journal article

Journal

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the infectious diseases society of america

Publication Date

06/2018

Volume

66

Pages

S281 - S285

Addresses

Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.