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Getting our ducks in a row: The need for data utility comparisons of healthcare systems data for clinical trials.
BackgroundBetter use of healthcare systems data, collected as part of interactions between patients and the healthcare system, could transform planning and conduct of randomised controlled trials. Multiple challenges to widespread use include whether healthcare systems data captures sufficiently well the data traditionally captured on case report forms. "Data Utility Comparison Studies" (DUCkS) assess the utility of healthcare systems data for RCTs by comparison to data collected by the trial. Despite their importance, there are few published UK examples of DUCkS.Methods-and-resultsBuilding from ongoing and selected recent examples of UK-led DUCkS in the literature, we set out experience-based considerations for the conduct of future DUCkS. Developed through informal iterative discussions in many forums, considerations are offered for planning, protocol development, data, analysis and reporting, with comparisons at "patient-level" or "trial-level", depending on the item of interest and trial status.DiscussionDUCkS could be a valuable tool in assessing where healthcare systems data can be used for trials and in which trial teams can play a leading role. There is a pressing need for trials to be more efficient in their delivery and research waste must be reduced. Trials have been making inconsistent use of healthcare systems data, not least because of an absence of evidence of utility. DUCkS can also help to identify challenges in using healthcare systems data, such as linkage (access and timing) and data quality. We encourage trial teams to incorporate and report DUCkS in trials and funders and data providers to support them.
System-wide approaches to antimicrobial therapy and antimicrobial resistance in the UK: the AMR-X framework.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens human, animal, and environmental health. Acknowledging the urgency of addressing AMR, an opportunity exists to extend AMR action-focused research beyond the confines of an isolated biomedical paradigm. An AMR learning system, AMR-X, envisions a national network of health systems creating and applying optimal use of antimicrobials on the basis of their data collected from the delivery of routine clinical care. AMR-X integrates traditional AMR discovery, experimental research, and applied research with continuous analysis of pathogens, antimicrobial uses, and clinical outcomes that are routinely disseminated to practitioners, policy makers, patients, and the public to drive changes in practice and outcomes. AMR-X uses connected data-to-action systems to underpin an evaluation framework embedded in routine care, continuously driving implementation of improvements in patient and population health, targeting investment, and incentivising innovation. All stakeholders co-create AMR-X, protecting the public from AMR by adapting to continuously evolving AMR threats and generating the information needed for precision patient and population care.
Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
BackgroundWHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsFor this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were "onchocerciasis" AND "ivermectin" AND "mass drug administration". The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986.FindingsOf 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I2 was 83·3% (95% CI 79·7 to 86·3). Records reporting 10 or more years of continuous mass drug administration with 80% or more therapeutic coverage of the eligible population yielded significantly higher odds of achieving elimination of transmission (log-odds 8·5 [95% CI 3·5 to 13·5]) or elimination and being close to elimination of transmission (42·4 [18·7 to 66·1]) than those with no years achieving 80% coverage or more. Reporting 15-19 years of ivermectin mass drug administration (22·7 [17·2 to 28·2]) and biannual treatment (43·3 [27·2 to 59·3]) were positively associated with elimination and being close to elimination of transmission compared with less than 15 years and no biannual mass drug administration, respectively. Having had vector control without vector elimination (-42·8 [-59·1 to -26·5]) and baseline holoendemicity (-41·97 [-60·6 to -23·2]) were associated with increased risk of ongoing transmission compared with no vector control and hypoendemicity, respectively. Blackfly disappearance due to vector control or environmental change contributed to elimination of transmission.InterpretationMass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium, UK Medical Research Council, and Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking.TranslationsFor the Swahili, French, Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Characterising personal, household, and community PM2.5 exposure in one urban and two rural communities in China.
BackgroundCooking and heating in households contribute importantly to air pollution exposure worldwide. However, there is insufficient investigation of measured fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure levels, variability, seasonality, and inter-spatial dynamics associated with these behaviours.MethodsWe undertook parallel measurements of personal, household (kitchen and living room), and community PM2.5 in summer (May-September 2017) and winter (November 2017-Janauary 2018) in 477 participants from one urban and two rural communities in China. After stringent data cleaning, there were 67,326-80,980 person-hours (ntotal = 441; nsummer = 384; nwinter = 364; 307 had repeated PM2.5 data in both seasons) of processed data per microenvironment. Age- and sex-adjusted geometric means of PM2.5 were calculated by key participant characteristics, overall and by season. Spearman correlation coefficients between PM2.5 levels across different microenvironments were computed.FindingsOverall, 26.4 % reported use of solid fuel for both cooking and heating. Solid fuel users had 92 % higher personal and kitchen 24-h average PM2.5 exposure than clean fuel users. Similarly, they also had a greater increase (83 % vs 26 %) in personal and household PM2.5 from summer to winter, whereas community levels of PM2.5 were 2-4 times higher in winter across different fuel categories. Compared with clean fuel users, solid fuel users had markedly higher weighted annual average PM2.5 exposure at personal (78.2 [95 % CI 71.6-85.3] μg/m3 vs 41.6 [37.3-46.5] μg/m3), kitchen (102.4 [90.4-116.0] μg/m3 vs 52.3 [44.8-61.2] μg/m3) and living room (62.1 [57.3-67.3] μg/m3 vs 41.0 [37.1-45.3] μg/m3) microenvironments. There was a remarkable diurnal variability in PM2.5 exposure among the participants, with 5-min moving average from 10 μg/m3 to 700-1200 μg/m3 across different microenvironments. Personal PM2.5 was moderately correlated with living room (Spearman r: 0.64-0.66) and kitchen (0.52-0.59) levels, but only weakly correlated with community levels, especially in summer (0.15-0.34) and among solid fuel users (0.11-0.31).ConclusionSolid fuel use for cooking and heating was associated with substantially higher personal and household PM2.5 exposure than clean fuel users. Household PM2.5 appeared a better proxy of personal exposure than community PM2.5.
Carbon Accounting in the Digital Industry: The Need to Move towards Decision Making in Uncertainty
In this paper, we present findings from a qualitative interview study, which highlights the difficulties and challenges with quantifying carbon emissions and discusses how to move productively through these challenges by drawing insights from studies of deep uncertainty. Our research study focuses on the digital sector and was governed by the following research question: how do practitioners researching, working, or immersed in the broad area of sustainable digitisation (researchers, industry, NGOs, and policy representatives) understand and engage with quantifying carbon? Our findings show how stakeholders struggled to measure carbon emissions across complex systems, the lack of standardisation to assist with this, and how these challenges led stakeholders to call for more data to address this uncertainty. We argue that these calls for more data obscure the fact that there will always be uncertainty, and that we must learn to govern from within it.
Behavioural responses to SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing in England: REACT-2 study
Background: This study assesses the behavioural responses to SARS-CoV-2 antibody test results as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2 (REACT-2) research programme, a large community-based surveillance study of antibody prevalence in England. Methods: A follow-up survey was conducted six weeks after the SARS-CoV-2 antibody test. The follow-up survey included 4500 people with a positive result and 4039 with a negative result. Reported changes in behaviour were assessed using difference-in-differences models. A nested interview study was conducted with 40 people to explore how they thought through their behavioural decisions. Results: While respondents reduced their protective behaviours over the six weeks, we did not find evidence that positive test results changed participant behaviour trajectories in relation to the number of contacts the respondents had, for leaving the house to go to work, or for leaving the house to socialise in a personal place. The qualitative findings supported these results. Most people did not think that they had changed their behaviours because of their test results, however they did allude to some changes in their attitudes and perceptions around risk, susceptibility, and potential severity of symptoms. Conclusions: We found limited evidence that knowing your antibody status leads to behaviour change in the context of a research study. While this finding should not be generalised to widespread self-testing in other contexts, it is reassuring given the importance of large prevalence studies, and the practicalities of doing these at scale using self-testing with lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA).
Target enrichment improves culture-independent detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and antimicrobial resistance determinants direct from clinical samples with Nanopore sequencing.
Multi-drug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection is a significant public health risk. Rapidly detecting N. gonorrhoeae and antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) determinants by metagenomic sequencing of urine is possible, although high levels of host DNA and overgrowth of contaminating species hamper sequencing and limit N. gonorrhoeae genome coverage. We performed Nanopore sequencing of nucleic acid amplification test-positive urine samples and culture-positive urethral swabs with and without probe-based target enrichment, using a custom SureSelect panel, to investigate whether selective enrichment of N. gonorrhoeae DNA improves detection of both species and AMR determinants. Probes were designed to cover the entire N. gonorrhoeae genome, with tenfold enrichment of probes covering selected AMR determinants. Multiplexing was tested in a subset of samples. The proportion of sequence bases classified as N. gonorrhoeae increased in all samples after enrichment, from a median (IQR) of 0.05 % (0.01-0.1 %) to 76 % (42-82 %), giving a corresponding median improvement in fold genome coverage of 365 times (112-720). Over 20-fold coverage, required for robust AMR determinant detection, was achieved in 13/15(87 %) samples, compared to 2/15(13 %) without enrichment. The four samples multiplexed together also achieved >20-fold genome coverage. Coverage of AMR determinants was sufficient to predict resistance conferred by changes in chromosomal genes, where present, and genome coverage also enabled phylogenetic relationships to be reconstructed. Probe-based target enrichment can improve N. gonorrhoeae genome coverage when sequencing DNA extracts directly from urine or urethral swabs, allowing for detection of AMR determinants. Additionally, multiplexing prior to enrichment provided enough genome coverage for AMR detection and reduces the costs associated with this method.
SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B and respiratory syncytial virus positivity and association with influenza-like illness and self-reported symptoms, over the 2022/23 winter season in the UK: a longitudinal surveillance cohort.
BACKGROUND: Syndromic surveillance often relies on patients presenting to healthcare. Community cohorts, although more challenging to recruit, could provide additional population-wide insights, particularly with SARS-CoV-2 co-circulating with other respiratory viruses. METHODS: We estimated the positivity and incidence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B, and RSV, and trends in self-reported symptoms including influenza-like illness (ILI), over the 2022/23 winter season in a broadly representative UK community cohort (COVID-19 Infection Survey), using negative-binomial generalised additive models. We estimated associations between test positivity and each of the symptoms and influenza vaccination, using adjusted logistic and multinomial models. RESULTS: Swabs taken at 32,937/1,352,979 (2.4%) assessments tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 181/14,939 (1.2%) for RSV and 130/14,939 (0.9%) for influenza A/B, varying by age over time. Positivity and incidence peaks were earliest for RSV, then influenza A/B, then SARS-CoV-2, and were highest for RSV in the youngest and for SARS-CoV-2 in the oldest age groups. Many test positives did not report key symptoms: middle-aged participants were generally more symptomatic than older or younger participants, but still, only ~ 25% reported ILI-WHO and ~ 60% ILI-ECDC. Most symptomatic participants did not test positive for any of the three viruses. Influenza A/B-positivity was lower in participants reporting influenza vaccination in the current and previous seasons (odds ratio = 0.55 (95% CI 0.32, 0.95)) versus neither season. CONCLUSIONS: Symptom profiles varied little by aetiology, making distinguishing SARS-CoV-2, influenza and RSV using symptoms challenging. Most symptoms were not explained by these viruses, indicating the importance of other pathogens in syndromic surveillance. Influenza vaccination was associated with lower rates of community influenza test positivity.
Risk of multiple sclerosis in individuals with infectious mononucleosis: a national population-based cohort study using hospital records in England, 2003–2023
Background: Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) is thought to be a necessary causative agent in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). Infectious mononucleosis (IM), which occurs up to 70% of adolescents and young adults with primary EBV infection, appears to be a further risk factor but few studies have been highly powered enough to explore this association by time since IM diagnosis. Objective: The objective was to quantify the risk of MS in individuals with IM compared with the general population, with particular focus on time since IM diagnosis. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study using English national Hospital Episode Statistics from 2003 to 2023, patients with a hospital diagnosis of IM were compared with the general population for MS incidence. Results: MS incidence in patients with IM was nearly three times higher than the general population after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI = 2.3–3.4), driven by strong associations at long time intervals (>5 years) between IM diagnosis and subsequent MS diagnosis. Conclusion: While EBV infection may be a prerequisite for MS, the disease process of IM (i.e. the body’s defective immune response to primary EBV infection) seems to be, in addition, implicated over the long term.
Impact of genetic, sociodemographic, and clinical features on antidepressant treatment trajectories in the perinatal period.
Pregnant women on antidepressants must balance potential fetal harm with the relapse risk. While various clinical and sociodemographic factors are known to influence treatment decisions, the impact of genetic factors remains unexplored. We conducted a cohort study among 2,316 women with diagnosed affective disorders who had redeemed antidepressant prescriptions six months before pregnancy, identified from the Danish Integrated Psychiatric Research study. We calculated polygenic risk scores (PGSs) for major depression (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD), and schizophrenia (SCZ) using individual-level genetic data and summary statistics from genome-wide association studies. We retrieved data on sociodemographic and clinical features from national registers. Applying group-based trajectory modeling, we identified four treatment trajectories across pregnancy and postpartum: Continuers (38.2 %), early discontinuers (22.7 %), late discontinuers (23.8 %), and interrupters (15.3 %). All three PGSs were not associated with treatment trajectories; for instance, the relative risk ratio for continuers versus early discontinuers was 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.81-1.06), 0.98 (0.84-1.13), 1.09 (0.95-1.27) for per 1-SD increase in PGS for MDD, BD, and SCZ, respectively. Sociodemographic factors were generally not associated with treatment trajectories, except for the association between primiparity and continuing antidepressant use. Women who received ≥2 classes or a higher dose of antidepressants had a higher probability of being late discontinuers, interrupters, and continuers. The likelihood of continuing antidepressants or restarting antidepressants postpartum increased with the previous antidepressant treatment duration. Our findings indicate that continued antidepressant use during pregnancy is influenced by the severity of the disease rather than genetic predisposition as measured by PGSs.
Decentralized Mixed Effects Modeling in COINSTAC.
Performing group analysis on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data with linear mixed-effects (LME) models is challenging due to its large dimensionality and inherent multi-level covariance structure. In addition, as large-scale collaborative projects become commonplace in neuroimaging, data must increasingly be stored and analyzed from different locations. In such settings, substantial overhead can occur in terms of data transfer and coordination between participating research groups. In some cases, data cannot be pooled together due to privacy or regulatory concerns. In this work, we propose a decentralized LME model to perform a large-scale analysis of data from different collaborations without data pooling. This method is efficient as it overcomes the hurdles of data sharing and has lower bandwidth and memory requirements for analysis than the centralized modeling approach. We evaluate our model using features extracted from structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data. Results highlight gray matter reductions in the temporal lobe/insula and medial frontal regions in schizophrenia, consistent with prior studies. Our analysis also demonstrates that decentralized LME models achieve similar performance compared to the models trained with all the data in one location. We also implement the decentralized LME approach in COINSTAC, an open source, decentralized platform for federating neuroimaging analysis, providing an easy to use tool for dissemination to the neuroimaging community.
Treating Hypertension: Important for Heart Health, Fundamental for Brain Health.
The Brain Health crisis stands as one of humankind's most pressing threats, with age-related noncommunicable brain diseases, particularly stroke, and dementia, affecting hundreds of millions annually and jeopardizing the economic well-being of populations worldwide. Epidemiological studies indicate that ≈40% of dementia and 60% of stroke cases are attributable to modifiable risk factors. In this Comments and Opinions article, we underscore the pivotal role of blood pressure (BP) control in reducing suffering, enhancing economic well-being, and promoting healthy longevity for populations worldwide. Emphasizing that BP control is crucial for both brain and heart health, it advocates for heightened awareness, positioning hypertension as a primary focus for preventing dementia and stroke with potential global impact. Despite its significance, BP control encounters global challenges, with proportions of the population maintaining adequately controlled hypertension ranging from 23% to 90%. The World Health Organization estimated that 46% of the 1.28 billion people with hypertension are unaware of their elevated BP. Given the notable disparities in BP management, addressing BP management also contributes to combating significant health inequalities. The next time you are faced with a patient anxious about the prospect of experiencing a fate similar to a parent with dementia or a sister with a stroke, we suggest a straightforward answer for health care providers: start ensuring BP control. BP is a matter of brain health, and it is a matter of our economic future.
Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection during multiple Omicron variant waves in the UK general population.
SARS-CoV-2 reinfections increased substantially after Omicron variants emerged. Large-scale community-based comparisons across multiple Omicron waves of reinfection characteristics, risk factors, and protection afforded by previous infection and vaccination, are limited. Here we studied ~45,000 reinfections from the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey and quantified the risk of reinfection in multiple waves, including those driven by BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, and BQ.1/CH.1.1/XBB.1.5 variants. Reinfections were associated with lower viral load and lower percentages of self-reporting symptoms compared with first infections. Across multiple Omicron waves, estimated protection against reinfection was significantly higher in those previously infected with more recent than earlier variants, even at the same time from previous infection. Estimated protection against Omicron reinfections decreased over time from the most recent infection if this was the previous or penultimate variant (generally within the preceding year). Those 14-180 days after receiving their most recent vaccination had a lower risk of reinfection than those >180 days from their most recent vaccination. Reinfection risk was independently higher in those aged 30-45 years, and with either low or high viral load in their most recent previous infection. Overall, the risk of Omicron reinfection is high, but with lower severity than first infections; both viral evolution and waning immunity are independently associated with reinfection.
Correction: Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias.
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011461.].
An analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections.
Vector control is a vital tool utilised by malaria control and elimination programmes worldwide, and as such it is important that we can accurately quantify the expected public health impact of these methods. There are very few previous models that consider vector-control-induced changes in the age-structure of the vector population and the resulting impact on transmission. We analytically derive the steady-state solution of a novel age-structured deterministic compartmental model describing the mosquito feeding cycle, with mosquito age represented discretely by parity-the number of cycles (or successful bloodmeals) completed. Our key model output comprises an explicit, analytically tractable solution that can be used to directly quantify key transmission statistics, such as the effective reproductive ratio under control, Rc, and investigate the age-structured impact of vector control. Application of this model reinforces current knowledge that adult-acting interventions, such as indoor residual spraying of insecticides (IRS) or long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), can be highly effective at reducing transmission, due to the dual effects of repelling and killing mosquitoes. We also demonstrate how larval measures can be implemented in addition to adult-acting measures to reduce Rc and mitigate the impact of waning insecticidal efficacy, as well as how mid-ranges of LLIN coverage are likely to experience the largest effect of reduced net integrity on transmission. We conclude that whilst well-maintained adult-acting vector control measures are substantially more effective than larval-based interventions, incorporating larval control in existing LLIN or IRS programmes could substantially reduce transmission and help mitigate any waning effects of adult-acting measures.