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Suicide and self-harm in adult survivors of critical illness: population based cohort study
Abstract Objective To analyse the association between survival from critical illness and suicide or self-harm after hospital discharge. Design Population based cohort study using linked and validated provincial databases. Setting Ontario, Canada between January 2009 and December 2017 (inclusive). Participants Consecutive adult intensive care unit (ICU) survivors (≥18 years) were included. Linked administrative databases were used to compare ICU hospital survivors with hospital survivors who never required ICU admission (non-ICU hospital survivors). Patients were categorised based on their index hospital admission (ICU or non-ICU) during the study period. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was the composite of death by suicide (as noted in provincial death records) and deliberate self-harm events after discharge. Each outcome was also assessed independently. Incidence of suicide was evaluated while accounting for competing risk of death from other causes. Analyses were conducted by using overlap propensity score weighted, cause specific Cox proportional hazard models. Results 423 060 consecutive ICU survivors (mean age 61.7 years, 39% women) were identified. During the study period, the crude incidence (per 100 000 person years) of suicide, self-harm, and the composite of suicide or self-harm among ICU survivors was 41.4, 327.9, and 361.0, respectively, compared with 16.8, 177.3, and 191.6 in non-ICU hospital survivors. Analysis using weighted models showed that ICU survivors ( v non-ICU hospital survivors) had a higher risk of suicide (adjusted hazards ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.33) and self-harm (1.15, 1.12 to 1.19). Among ICU survivors, several factors were associated with suicide or self-harm: previous depression or anxiety (5.69, 5.38 to 6.02), previous post-traumatic stress disorder (1.87, 1.64 to 2.13), invasive mechanical ventilation (1.45, 1.38 to 1.54), and renal replacement therapy (1.35, 1.17 to 1.56). Conclusions Survivors of critical illness have increased risk of suicide and self-harm, and these outcomes were associated with pre-existing psychiatric illness and receipt of invasive life support. Knowledge of these prognostic factors might allow for earlier intervention to potentially reduce this important public health problem.
Dying of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
ObjectiveTo describe health care service utilization and cost for decedents with and without amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in the last year of life.MethodsUsing linked health administrative data, we conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study of Ontario, Canada, decedents from 2013 to 2015. We examined demographic data, rate of utilization, and cost of health care services in the last year of life.ResultsWe identified 283,096 decedents in Ontario, of whom 1,212 (0.42%) had ALS. Decedents with ALS spent 3 times as many days in an intensive care unit (ICU) (mean 6.3 vs 2.1, p < 0.001), and twice as many days using complex continuing care (mean 12.7 vs 6.0, p < 0.001) and home care (mean 99.1 vs 41.3, p < 0.001). A greater percentage of decedents with ALS received palliative home care (44% vs 20%, p < 0.001) and palliative physician home visits (40% vs 18%, p < 0.001) than decedents without ALS. Among decedents with ALS, a palliative physician home visit in the last year of life was associated with reduced adjusted odds of dying in hospital (odds ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.48–0.89) and fewer days spent in the ICU. Mean cost of care in the last year of life was greater for those with ALS ($68,311.98 vs $55,773.48, p < 0.001).ConclusionsIn this large population-based cohort of decedents, individuals with ALS spent more days in the ICU, received more community-based services, and incurred higher costs of care in the last year of life. A palliative care physician home visit was associated with improved end of life outcomes; however, the majority of patients with ALS did not access such services.
Lynch syndrome screening in colorectal cancer: results of a prospective 2-year regional programme validating the NICE diagnostics guidance pathway throughout a 5.2-million population.
AimsScreening all patients newly diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) for possible Lynch syndrome (LS) has been recommended in the United Kingdom since the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) released new diagnostics guidance in February 2017. We sought to validate the NICE screening pathway through a prospective regional programme throughout a 5.2-million population during a 2-year period.Methods and resultsPathology departments at 14 hospital trusts in the Yorkshire and Humber region of the United Kingdom were invited to refer material from patients with newly diagnosed CRC aged 50 years or over between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2019 for LS screening. Testing consisted of immunohistochemistry for MLH1, PMS2, MSH2 and MSH6 followed by BRAF mutation analysis ± MLH1 promoter methylation testing in cases showing MLH1 loss. A total of 3141 individual specimens were submitted for testing from 12 departments consisting of 3061 unique tumours and 2791 prospectively acquired patients with CRC. Defective mismatch repair (dMMR) was observed in 15% of cases. In cases showing MLH1 loss, 76% contained a detectable BRAF mutation and, of the remainder, 77% showed MLH1 promoter hypermethylation. Of the patients included in the final analysis, 81 (2.9%) had an indication for germline testing.ConclusionLS screening using the NICE diagnostics guidance pathway is deliverable at scale identifying significant numbers of patients with dMMR. This information is used to refer patients to regional clinical genetics services in addition to informing treatment pathways including the use of adjuvant/neoadjuvant chemotherapy and immunotherapy.
The Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC) burden of care study: Analysis of local treatments for lung metastases and systemic chemotherapy in 220 patients in the PulMiCC cohort.
AimThe aim of this work was to examine the burden of further treatments in patients with colorectal cancer following a decision about lung metastasectomy.MethodFive teams participating in the Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC) study provided details on subsequent local treatments for lung metastases, including the use of chemotherapy. For patients in three groups (no metastasectomy, one metastasectomy or multiple local interventions), baseline factors and selection criteria for additional treatments were examined.ResultsThe five teams recruited 220 patients between October 2010 and January 2017. No lung metastasectomy was performed in 51 patients, 114 patients had one metastasectomy and 55 patients had multiple local interventions. Selection for initial metastasectomy was associated with nonelevated carcinoembryonic antigen, fewer metastases and no prior liver metastasectomy. These patients also had better Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scores and lung function at baseline. Four sites provided information on chemotherapy in 139 patients: 79 (57%) had one to five courses of chemotherapy, to a total of 179 courses. The patterns of survival after one or multiple metastasectomy interventions showed evidence of guarantee-time bias contributing to an impression of benefit over no metastasectomy. After repeated metastasectomy, a significantly higher risk of death was observed, with no apparent reduction in chemotherapy usage.ConclusionRepeated metastasectomy is associated with a higher risk of death without reducing the use of chemotherapy. Continued monitoring without surgery might reassure patients with indolent disease or allow response assessment during systemic treatment. Overall, the carefully collected information from the PulMICC study provides no indication of an important survival benefit from metastasectomy.
Health economic studies of colorectal cancer and the contribution of administrative data: A systematic review.
IntroductionSeveral forces are contributing to an increase in the number of people living with and surviving colorectal cancer (CRC). However, due to the lack of available data, little is known about the implications of these forces. In recent years, the use of administrative records to inform research has been increasing. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential contribution that administrative data could have on the health economic research of CRC.MethodsTo achieve this aim, we conducted a systematic review of the health economic CRC literature published in the United Kingdom and Europe within the last decade (2009-2019).ResultsThirty-seven relevant studies were identified and divided into economic evaluations, cost of illness studies and cost consequence analyses.ConclusionsThe use of administrative data, including cancer registry, screening and hospital records, within the health economic research of CRC is commonplace. However, we found that this data often come from regional databases, which reduces the generalisability of results. Further, administrative data appear less able to contribute towards understanding the wider and indirect costs associated with the disease. We explore several ways in which various sources of administrative data could enhance future research in this area.
Consultations for clinical features of possible cancer and associated urgent referrals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational cohort study from English primary care.
BackgroundIt remains unclear to what extent reductions in urgent referrals for suspected cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic were the result of fewer patients attending primary care compared to GPs referring fewer patients.MethodsCohort study including electronic health records data from 8,192,069 patients from 663 English practices. Weekly consultation rates, cumulative consultations and referrals were calculated for 28 clinical features from the NICE suspected cancer guidelines. Clinical feature consultation rate ratios (CRR) and urgent referral rate ratios (RRR) compared time periods in 2020 with 2019.FindingsConsultations for cancer clinical features decreased by 24.19% (95% CI: 24.04-24.34%) between 2019 and 2020, particularly in the 6-12 weeks following the first national lockdown. Urgent referrals for clinical features decreased by 10.47% (95% CI: 9.82-11.12%) between 2019 and 2020. Overall, once patients consulted with primary care, GPs urgently referred a similar or greater proportion of patients compared to previous years.ConclusionDue to the significant fall in patients consulting with clinical features of cancer there was a lower than expected number of urgent referrals in 2020. Sustained efforts should be made throughout the pandemic to encourage the public to consult their GP with cancer clinical features.
Microbiome Analysis of More Than 2,000 NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Samples Shows the Potential to Improve Screening Accuracy.
PurposeThere is potential for fecal microbiome profiling to improve colorectal cancer screening. This has been demonstrated by research studies, but it has not been quantified at scale using samples collected and processed routinely by a national screening program.Experimental designBetween 2016 and 2019, the largest of the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme hubs prospectively collected processed guaiac fecal occult blood test (gFOBT) samples with subsequent colonoscopy outcomes: blood-negative [n = 491 (22%)]; colorectal cancer [n = 430 (19%)]; adenoma [n = 665 (30%)]; colonoscopy-normal [n = 300 (13%)]; nonneoplastic [n = 366 (16%)]. Samples were transported and stored at room temperature. DNA underwent 16S rRNA gene V4 amplicon sequencing. Taxonomic profiling was performed to provide features for classification via random forests (RF).ResultsSamples provided 16S amplicon-based microbial profiles, which confirmed previously described colorectal cancer-microbiome associations. Microbiome-based RF models showed potential as a first-tier screen, distinguishing colorectal cancer or neoplasm (colorectal cancer or adenoma) from blood-negative with AUC 0.86 (0.82-0.89) and AUC 0.78 (0.74-0.82), respectively. Microbiome-based models also showed potential as a second-tier screen, distinguishing from among gFOBT blood-positive samples, colorectal cancer or neoplasm from colonoscopy-normal with AUC 0.79 (0.74-0.83) and AUC 0.73 (0.68-0.77), respectively. Models remained robust when restricted to 15 taxa, and performed similarly during external validation with metagenomic datasets.ConclusionsMicrobiome features can be assessed using gFOBT samples collected and processed routinely by a national colorectal cancer screening program to improve accuracy as a first- or second-tier screen. The models required as few as 15 taxa, raising the potential of an inexpensive qPCR test. This could reduce the number of colonoscopies in countries that use fecal occult blood test screening.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on radiotherapy services in England, UK: a population-based study.
BackgroundThe indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer outcomes is of increasing concern. However, the extent to which key treatment modalities have been affected is unclear. We aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on radiotherapy activity in England.MethodsIn this population-based study, data relating to all radiotherapy delivered for cancer in the English NHS, between Feb 4, 2019, and June 28, 2020, were extracted from the National Radiotherapy Dataset. Changes in mean weekly radiotherapy courses, attendances (reflecting fractions), and fractionation patterns following the start of the UK lockdown were compared with corresponding months in 2019 overall, for specific diagnoses, and across age groups. The significance of changes in radiotherapy activity during lockdown was examined using interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis.FindingsIn 2020, mean weekly radiotherapy courses fell by 19·9% in April, 6·2% in May, and 11·6% in June compared with corresponding months in 2019. A relatively greater fall was observed for attendances (29·1% in April, 31·4% in May, and 31·5% in June). These changes were significant on ITS analysis (p<0·0001). A greater reduction in treatment courses between 2019 and 2020 was seen for patients aged 70 years or older compared with those aged younger than 70 years (34·4% vs 7·3% in April). By diagnosis, the largest reduction from 2019 to 2020 in treatment courses was for prostate cancer (77·0% in April) and non-melanoma skin cancer (72·4% in April). Conversely, radiotherapy courses in April, 2020, compared with April, 2019, increased by 41·2% in oesophageal cancer, 64·2% in bladder cancer, and 36·3% in rectal cancer. Increased use of ultra-hypofractionated (26 Gy in five fractions) breast radiotherapy as a percentage of all courses (0·2% in April, 2019, to 60·6% in April, 2020; ITS p<0·0001) contributed to the substantial reduction in attendances.InterpretationRadiotherapy activity fell significantly, but use of hypofractionated regimens rapidly increased in the English NHS during the first peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. An increase in treatments for some cancers suggests that radiotherapy compensated for reduced surgical activity. These data will assist health-care providers in understanding the indirect consequences of the pandemic and the role of radiotherapy services in minimising these consequences.FundingNone.
Power of big data to improve patient care in gastroenterology.
Big data is defined as being large, varied or frequently updated, and usually generated from real-world interaction. With the unprecedented availability of big data, comes an obligation to maximise its potential for healthcare improvements in treatment effectiveness, disease prevention and healthcare delivery. We review the opportunities and challenges that big data brings to gastroenterology. We review its sources for healthcare improvement in gastroenterology, including electronic medical records, patient registries and patient-generated data. Big data can complement traditional research methods in hypothesis generation, supporting studies and disseminating findings; and in some cases holds distinct advantages where traditional trials are unfeasible. There is great potential power in patient-level linkage of datasets to help quantify inequalities, identify best practice and improve patient outcomes. We exemplify this with the UK colorectal cancer repository and the potential of linkage using the National Endoscopy Database, the inflammatory bowel disease registry and the National Health Service bowel cancer screening programme. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly being used to improve diagnostics in gastroenterology, with image analysis entering clinical practice, and the potential of machine learning to improve outcome prediction and diagnostics in other clinical areas. Big data brings issues with large sample sizes, real-world biases, data curation, keeping clinical context at analysis and General Data Protection Regulation compliance. There is a tension between our obligation to use data for the common good and protecting individual patient's data. We emphasise the importance of engaging with our patients to enable them to understand their data usage as fully as they wish.
Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer: health utility scores by EQ-5D-3L in a randomized controlled trial show no benefit from lung metastasectomy.
AimThe aim was to assess the health utility of lung metastasectomy in the treatment of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) using the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire.MethodsMultidisciplinary CRC teams at 14 sites recruited patients to a two-arm randomized controlled trial-Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Colorectal Cancer (PulMiCC). Remote randomization was used, stratified by site and with minimization for seven known confounders. Participants completed the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire together with other patient reported outcome measures at randomization and then again at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. These were returned by post to the coordinating centre.ResultsBetween December 2010 and December 2016, 93 participants were randomized, 91 of whom returned questionnaires. Survival and patient reported quality of life have been published previously, revealing no significant differences between the trial arms. Described here are patient reported data from the five dimensions of the EQ-5D-3L and the visual analogue scale (VAS) health state. No significant difference was seen at any time point. The estimated difference between control and metastasectomy patients was -0.23 (95% CI -0.113, 0.066) for the composite 0 to 1 index scale based on the descriptive system and 0.123 (95% CI -7.24, 7.49) for the 0 to 100 VAS scale.ConclusionsFollowing lung metastasectomy for CRC, no benefit was demonstrated for health utility, which alongside a lack of a survival or quality of life benefit calls into question the widespread use of the procedure.
The incidence, characteristics and outcomes of pregnant women hospitalized with symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK from March to September 2020: A national cohort study using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS).
BackgroundThere is a lack of population level data on risk factors, incidence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant women and their babies. The primary aim of this study was to describe the incidence, characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized pregnant women with symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 in the UK compared to pregnant women without SARS-CoV-2.Methods and findingsWe conducted a national, prospective cohort study of all hospitalized pregnant women with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 from 01/03/2020 to 31/08/2020 using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System. Incidence rates were estimated using national maternity data. Overall, 1148 hospitalized women had confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy, 63% of which were symptomatic. The estimated incidence of hospitalization with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 was 2.0 per 1000 maternities (95% CI 1.9-2.2) and for asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 was 1.2 per 1000 maternities (95% CI 1.1-1.4). Compared to pregnant women without SARS-CoV-2, women hospitalized with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 were more likely to be overweight or obese (adjusted OR 1.86, (95% CI 1.39-2.48) and aOR 2.07 (1.53-2.29)), to be of Black, Asian or Other minority ethnic group (aOR 6.24, (3.93-9.90), aOR 4.36, (3.19-5.95) and aOR 12.95, (4.93-34.01)), and to have a relevant medical comorbidity (aOR 1.83 (1.32-2.54)). Hospitalized pregnant women with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 were more likely to be admitted to intensive care (aOR 57.67, (7.80-426.70)) but the absolute risk of poor outcomes was low. Cesarean births and neonatal unit admission were increased regardless of symptom status (symptomatic aOR 2.60, (1.97-3.42) and aOR 3.08, (1.99-4.77); asymptomatic aOR 2.02, (1.52-2.70) and aOR 1.84, (1.12-3.03)). The risks of stillbirth or neonatal death were not significantly increased, regardless of symptom status.ConclusionsWe have identified factors that increase the risk of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy. Clinicians can be reassured that the majority of women do not experience severe complications of SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy.
Cancer Trial Impact: Understanding Implementation of the Short Course Oncology Treatment Trial Findings at a National Level.
AimsThe Short Course Oncology Treatment (SCOT) trial indicated that 3 months of adjuvant doublet chemotherapy was non-inferior to 6 months of treatment for patients with colorectal cancer, with considerably less toxicity. The SCOT trial results were disseminated in June 2017. The aim of this study was to understand if SCOT trial findings were implemented in Scotland.Materials and methodsA retrospective analysis was carried out on a dataset derived from a source population of 5.4 million people. Eligible patients were those with stage II or III colorectal cancer who received adjuvant chemotherapy. Logistic regression was applied to understand the extent of practice change to a 3-month adjuvant chemotherapy duration after the SCOT trial results were disseminated. Interrupted time series analysis was used to visualise differences in prescribing trends before and after June 2017 for the overall cohort, and by SCOT trial eligibility.ResultsIn total, 2310 patients were included in the study; 1957 and 353 treated pre- and post-June 2017, respectively. The median treatment duration decreased from 21 weeks (interquartile range 14-24) prior to June 2017 to 12 weeks (interquartile range 12-21 weeks) after June 2017 (P < 0.001). The proportion of patients receiving over 3 months of adjuvant treatment decreased from 75% to 42% (P < 0.001). This change was most noticeable for patients who met the SCOT trial eligibility criteria, and specifically for those with low-risk stage III disease and those treated with capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX). Although practice change occurred in all locations, there were differences between regions that could be explained by pre-SCOT trial prescribing trends.DiscussionA significant change in chemotherapy prescribing occurred after dissemination of the SCOT trial results. National, real-world data can be used to capture the extent of implementation of clinical trial results. In this case, implementation was aligned with clinical trial subgroup findings. This type of analysis could be conducted to evaluate the impact of other clinical trials.
Creation of the first national linked colorectal cancer dataset in Scotland: prospects for future research and a reflection on lessons learned.
IntroductionCurrent understanding of cancer patients, their treatment pathways and outcomes relies mainly on information from clinical trials and prospective research studies representing a selected sub-set of the patient population. Whole-population analysis is necessary if we are to assess the true impact of new interventions or policy in a real-world setting. Accurate measurement of geographic variation in healthcare use and outcomes also relies on population-level data. Routine access to such data offers efficiency in research resource allocation and a basis for policy that addresses inequalities in care provision.ObjectiveAcknowledging these benefits, the objective of this project was to create a population level dataset in Scotland of patients with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC).MethodsThis paper describes the process of creating a novel, national dataset in Scotland.ResultsIn total, thirty two separate healthcare administrative datasets have been linked to provide a comprehensive resource to investigate the management pathways and outcomes for patients with CRC in Scotland, as well as the costs of providing CRC treatment. This is the first time that chemotherapy prescribing and national audit datasets have been linked with the Scottish Cancer Registry on a national scale.ConclusionsWe describe how the acquired dataset can be used as a research resource and reflect on the data access challenges relating to its creation. Lessons learned from this process and the policy implications for future studies using administrative cancer data are highlighted.