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Prediction of type 2 diabetes based on genetic testing might improve identification of high-risk subjects. Genome-wide association (GWA) studies identified multiple new genetic variants that associate with type 2 diabetes. The predictive value of genetic testing for prediction of type 2 diabetes in the general population is unclear.We investigated 18 polymorphisms from recent GWA studies on type 2 diabetes in the Rotterdam Study, a prospective, population-based study among homogeneous Caucasian individuals of 55 years and older (genotyped subjects, n = 6,544; prevalent cases, n = 686; incident cases during follow-up, n = 601; mean follow-up 10.6 years). The predictive value of these polymorphisms was examined alone and in addition to clinical characteristics using logistic and Cox regression analyses. The discriminative accuracy of the prediction models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs).Of the 18 polymorphisms, the ADAMTS9, CDKAL1, CDKN2A/B-rs1412829, FTO, IGF2BP2, JAZF1, SLC30A8, TCF7L2, and WFS1 variants were associated with type 2 diabetes risk in our population. The AUC was 0.60 (95% CI 0.57-0.63) for prediction based on the genetic polymorphisms; 0.66 (0.63-0.68) for age, sex, and BMI; and 0.68 (0.66-0.71) for the genetic polymorphisms and clinical characteristics combined.We showed that 9 of 18 well-established genetic risk variants were associated with type 2 diabetes in a population-based study. Combining genetic variants has low predictive value for future type 2 diabetes at a population-based level. The genetic polymorphisms only marginally improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes beyond clinical characteristics.

Original publication

DOI

10.2337/db08-0425

Type

Journal article

Journal

Diabetes

Publication Date

11/2008

Volume

57

Pages

3122 - 3128

Addresses

Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

Keywords

Humans, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, tRNA Methyltransferases, Proteins, Cation Transport Proteins, RNA-Binding Proteins, Membrane Proteins, Neoplasm Proteins, Risk Factors, Prospective Studies, Polymorphism, Genetic, Genome, Human, Aged, Middle Aged, European Continental Ancestry Group, Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p16, Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p15, Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 5, ADAM Proteins, TCF Transcription Factors, Genome-Wide Association Study, Transcription Factor 7-Like 2 Protein, ADAMTS9 Protein, Alpha-Ketoglutarate-Dependent Dioxygenase FTO