Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

Original publication

DOI

10.1038/nrmicro3430

Type

Journal article

Journal

Nature Reviews Microbiology

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Publication Date

04/2015

Volume

13

Pages

230 - 239

Addresses

Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.

Keywords

Animals, Humans, Dengue, Models, Statistical, Models, Biological, Forecasting