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Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

Original publication




Journal article


Nature reviews. Microbiology

Publication Date





230 - 239


Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.


Animals, Humans, Dengue, Models, Statistical, Models, Biological, Forecasting