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We explored the epidemic history of HIV-1 subtype B in the United Kingdom by using statistical methods that infer the population history of pathogens from sampled gene sequence data. Phylogenetic analysis of HIV-1 pol gene sequences from Britain showed at least six large transmission chains, indicating a genetically variable, but epidemiologically homogeneous, epidemic among men having sex with men. Through coalescent-based analysis, we showed that these chains arose through separate introductions of subtype B strains into the United Kingdom in the early to mid-1980s. After an initial period of exponential growth, the rate of spread generally slowed in the early 1990s, which is more likely to correlate with behavior change than with reduced infectiousness resulting from highly active antiretroviral therapy. Our results provide insights into the complexity of HIV-1 epidemics that must be considered when developing HIV monitoring and prevention initiatives.

Original publication

DOI

10.1073/pnas.0407534102

Type

Journal article

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Publication Date

14/03/2005

Volume

102

Pages

4425 - 4429

Addresses

Centre for Virology, Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, 46 Cleveland Street, London W1T 4JF, UK.

Keywords

Humans, HIV-1, HIV Infections, Risk Factors, Disease Outbreaks, Evolution, Molecular, Phylogeny, Genes, pol, Time Factors, Molecular Sequence Data, Male, United Kingdom