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The burden of antimicrobial resistance in the Americas in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis.
BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive-despite the region's long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat.MethodsWe estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.FindingsWe estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000-771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900-196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000-241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200-278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600-168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000-608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen-drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen-drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR.InterpretationGiven the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen-drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic health-care services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.
Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over 18 months following infection: UK Biobank COVID-19 Serology Study.
BackgroundLittle is known about the persistence of antibodies after the first year following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to determine the proportion of individuals that maintain detectable levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over an 18-month period following infection.MethodsPopulation-based prospective study of 20 000 UK Biobank participants and their adult relatives recruited in May 2020. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases testing positive for immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against the spike protein (IgG-S), and the nucleocapsid protein (IgG-N), was calculated at varying intervals following infection.ResultsOverall, 20 195 participants were recruited. Their median age was 56 years (IQR 39-68), 56% were female and 88% were of white ethnicity. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases with IgG-S antibodies following infection remained high (92%, 95% CI 90%-93%) at 6 months after infection. Levels of IgG-N antibodies following infection gradually decreased from 92% (95% CI 88%-95%) at 3 months to 72% (95% CI 70%-75%) at 18 months. There was no strong evidence of heterogeneity in antibody persistence by age, sex, ethnicity or socioeconomic deprivation.ConclusionThis study adds to the limited evidence on the long-term persistence of antibodies following SARS-CoV-2 infection, with likely implications for waning immunity following infection and the use of IgG-N in population surveys.
Schizophrenia-associated somatic copy-number variants from 12,834 cases reveal recurrent NRXN1 and ABCB11 disruptions.
While germline copy-number variants (CNVs) contribute to schizophrenia (SCZ) risk, the contribution of somatic CNVs (sCNVs)-present in some but not all cells-remains unknown. We identified sCNVs using blood-derived genotype arrays from 12,834 SCZ cases and 11,648 controls, filtering sCNVs at loci recurrently mutated in clonal blood disorders. Likely early-developmental sCNVs were more common in cases (0.91%) than controls (0.51%, p = 2.68e-4), with recurrent somatic deletions of exons 1-5 of the NRXN1 gene in five SCZ cases. Hi-C maps revealed ectopic, allele-specific loops forming between a potential cryptic promoter and non-coding cis-regulatory elements upon 5' deletions in NRXN1. We also observed recurrent intragenic deletions of ABCB11, encoding a transporter implicated in anti-psychotic response, in five treatment-resistant SCZ cases and showed that ABCB11 is specifically enriched in neurons forming mesocortical and mesolimbic dopaminergic projections. Our results indicate potential roles of sCNVs in SCZ risk.
A Common Genetic Factor Underlies Genetic Risk for Gynaecological and Reproductive Disorders and Is Correlated with Risk to Depression.
IntroductionSex steroid hormone fluctuations may underlie both reproductive disorders and sex differences in lifetime depression prevalence. Previous studies report high comorbidity among reproductive disorders and between reproductive disorders and depression. This study sought to assess the multivariate genetic architecture of reproductive disorders and their loading onto a common genetic factor and investigated whether this latent factor shares a common genetic architecture with female depression, including perinatal depression (PND).MethodUsing UK Biobank and FinnGen data, genome-wide association meta-analyses were conducted for nine reproductive disorders, and genetic correlation between disorders was estimated. Genomic Structural Equation Modelling identified a latent genetic factor underlying disorders, accounting for their significant genetic correlations. SNPs significantly associated with both latent factor and depression were identified.ResultsExcellent model fit existed between a latent factor underlying five reproductive disorders (χ2 (5) = 6.4; AIC = 26.4; CFI = 1.00; SRMR = 0.03) with high standardised loadings for menorrhagia (0.96, SE = 0.05); ovarian cysts (0.94, SE = 0.05); endometriosis (0.83, SE = 0.05); menopausal symptoms (0.77, SE = 0.10); and uterine fibroids (0.65, SE = 0.05). This latent factor was genetically correlated with PND (rG = 0.37, SE = 0.15, p = 1.4e-03), depression in females only (rG = 0.48, SE = 0.06, p = 7.2e-11), and depression in both males and females (MD) (rG = 0.35, SE = 0.03, p = 1.8e-30), with its top locus associated with FSHB/ARL14EP (rs11031006; p = 9.1e-33). SNPs intronic to ESR1, significantly associated with the latent factor, were also associated with PND, female depression, and MD.ConclusionA common genetic factor, correlated with depression, underlies risk of reproductive disorders, with implications for aetiology and treatment. Genetic variation in ESR1 is associated with reproductive disorders and depression, highlighting the importance of oestrogen signalling for both reproductive and mental health.
A quantitative evaluation of the impact of vaccine roll-out rate and coverage on reducing deaths: insights from the first 2 years of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran.
BackgroundVaccination has played a pivotal role in reducing the burden of COVID-19. Despite numerous studies highlighting its benefits in reducing the risk of severe disease and death, we still lack a quantitative understanding of how varying vaccination roll-out rates influence COVID-19 mortality.MethodsWe developed a framework for estimating the number of avertable COVID-19 deaths (ACDs) by vaccination in Iran. To achieve this, we compared Iran's vaccination roll-out rates with those of eight model countries that predominantly used inactivated virus vaccines. We calculated net differences in the number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual scenarios where Iran's per-capita roll-out rate was replaced with that of the model countries. This, in turn, enabled us to determine age specific ACDs for the Iranian population under counterfactual scenarios where number of COVID-19 deaths are estimated using all-cause mortality data. These estimates covered the period from the start of 2020 to 20 April 2022.ResultsWe found that while Iran would have had an approximately similar number of fully vaccinated individuals under counterfactual roll-out rates based on Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey (~ 65-70%), adopting Turkey's roll-out rates could have averted 50,000 (95% confidence interval: 38,100-53,500) additional deaths, while following Bangladesh's rates may have resulted in 52,800 (17,400-189,500) more fatalities in Iran. Surprisingly, mimicking Argentina's slower roll-out led to only 12,600 (10,400-13,300) fewer deaths, despite a higher counterfactual percentage of fully vaccinated individuals (~ 79%). Emulating Montenegro or Bolivia, with faster per capita roll-out rates and approximately 50% counterfactual full vaccination, could have prevented more deaths in older age groups, especially during the early waves. Finally, replicating Bahrain's model as an upper-bound benchmark, Iran could have averted 75,300 (56,000-83,000) deaths, primarily in the > 50 age groups.ConclusionsOur analysis revealed that faster roll-outs were consistently associated with higher numbers of averted deaths, even in scenarios with lower overall coverage. This study offers valuable insights into future decision-making regarding infectious disease epidemic management through vaccination strategies. It accomplishes this by comparing various countries' relative performance in terms of timing, pace, and vaccination coverage, ultimately contributing to the prevention of COVID-19-related deaths.