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Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R , and reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.

Original publication

DOI

10.1101/2020.06.09.20124008

Type

Working paper

Publication Date

12/06/2020

Keywords

CMMID COVID-19 working group